College Football Week 11…
What a weekend in college football. It is tough to say anything positive about the loss that Ole Miss had. They were one foot from defeating Auburn, but a horse collar tackle followed by a helmet to helmet hit that lead to a broken leg, a fumble at the 1 foot line, losing their best receiver for the year and dropping out of the race for the playoff. Talking about a hard pill to swallow, but it really came down to their quarterback fumbling at the five yard line on the previous series. He made a really bad decision, almost as bad as the decision to throw the ball up for grabs the week prior at LSU. It is easy to be upset at the no-call, blatant, penalties on the final play but Ole Miss fan should really be upset at their quarterback.
This is my ranking Top Ten non SEC-programs that have a chance to make the playoff. This is not my top ten college football schools. It is the top ten teams that have the best chance to get into the playoff system.
- Florida State- They escaped a trap game and after falling behind 21-0. They went on a 41-10 run to make the game a mismatch. Virginia is up this week and look for the Noles to continue winning as long as they can keep their quarterback and running back on the right side of the jail.
- Notre Dame-I said that it will be closer than you expect and it was. This week the Irish go on the road to Arizona State. This will not be as close and the Irish will continue to win. One thing bothers me, the talking heads on ESPN keep talking about strength of schedule and they point to Notre Dame’s schedule as lacking primer opponents but their schedule is much tougher than Florida State, Oregon and TCU. I still think they will climb into the top four if they win out.
- Oregon – They beat Stanford pretty good. Now they travel to Utah. I don’t know much about Utah and I am tempted to say that the Ducks will roll. But I am not so sure. If you’re up late on the east coast, this should be worth watching.
- TCU- TCU escaped WVU and now they face an over-rated Kansas State team. I think that TCU will win out and make the playoffs but they shouldn’t. They are just not that good. TCU 67 Kansas State 37.
- Michigan State/Ohio State- Triple Yawn. I guess we have to act like this game matters. Winner gets all the love from ESPN but ultimately will be left out of the playoff and get Marshall in the Peach Bowl. If one of these teams had Madison Bumgarner, I would be interested. Look for a baseball score fest MSU 5 OSU 3.
In my heart, I love the underdog. This is the only team from the non-Power 5 that could make the playoff.
- Marshall- Brett Farve has big plans to mow his grass this week while Southern Mississippi hosts Marshall. I am now predicting that Marshall will be in the Peach Bowl against Michigan State.
Utah State (OUT)
Arkansas State (OUT)
The SEC is where all the action is for most college football fans. Last week the SEC got the warm fuzzy of having three teams in the top four for the playoff. This week, they are down to two. The final poll will have them down to one.
Auburn hosts Texas A&M. It shouldn’t be much of a game, because A&M is Bowl eligible. They are going into the game expecting to lose with a true Freshman Quarterback that struggled against Louisiana-Monroe.
Georgia at Kentucky. I thought Georgia would roll over Florida 72-0. They got rolled instead. I would think that Kentucky would be an easy game but they gave Mississippi State everything they wanted two weeks ago. This is a must win for Georgia if they want to have the outside chance to make the playoffs. UGA 33 UK 30.
Mississippi State hosting UT Martin and Ole Miss hosting Presbyterian. These are get well games for both teams. Big wins across the board.
Alabama at LSU. This is an elimination game. The winner will start to come back into the conversation and the loser is out. This will be an old school, smash mouth football game. Can Lane Kiffen coach in this type of game? I think not. Bama 14 LSU 24.
- Mississippi State (15 Nov@ Alabama, 29 Nov@ Ole Miss)
- Georgia (15 Nov-Auburn)
- Ole Miss (15@ Arkansas, 29 Nov Miss State)
- Auburn (15 Nov @ UGA, 29 Nov@ Alabama)
- Alabama (8 Nov@ LSU, 15 Nov Miss St, 29 Nov Auburn)
- LSU (8 Nov Alabama)
I post this mini-schedule to illustrate a single point. It is very possible that every team in the SEC has two losses by the end of November. The nightmare for the SEC is that all the Western Conference teams have two losses on 30 Nov. It is very possible that LSU would win the tie breaker and would play Georgia in the SEC Championship. LSU wins the game while Florida State, Notre Dame, Oregon, TCU or Kansas State, and Michigan State all finish the season winning out. Could a two loss LSU take a playoff spot from a higher ranked and one loss Big 12 or Big 10 team and leave the SEC at home watching the playoff?